Market optimism is justified – despite election uncertainties: deVere CEO


The S&P 500 hitting its 35th record high this year shows the market is well-prepared to handle any uncertainties that may arise from the US presidential campaign, predicts the CEO of one of the world's largest independent financial advisory and asset management organisations.


The bullish predictions from deVere Group's Nigel Green come as Wall Street's broad market index on Monday closed at 5,572.85 with a modest increase of 0.1%. 


He comments: "Despite this remarkable performance, the looming uncertainty surrounding the US presidential campaign – questions about Biden's potential replacement and the possibility of Trump being re-elected – could lead to a market pullback. 


"Nonetheless, there are several factors that bolster a bullish outlook even amid these uncertainties.


"In the event of an economic slowdown, the Federal Reserve is prepared to cut interest rates, providing a crucial safety net for the economy. This readiness to act as a backstop significantly reduces perceived downside risks for investors. 


"The prospect of rate cuts ensures that liquidity remains abundant, which supports asset prices and maintains investor optimism."


June's US consumer price index (CPI) will be released Thursday, and could enhance hopes that the Fed will move to cut rates this year if the headline number shows a slight improvement. Producer price index data will be released on Friday.


The supportive actions of the US central banks, combined with robust corporate fundamentals, create a favourable environment for equities. 


"Companies continue to demonstrate strong performance, and their solid fundamentals provide a sturdy foundation for continued growth. 


"This positive interplay between economic policies and corporate health encourages investors to remain confident in the market's potential."


Earnings season kicks off on Friday, with earnings expectations at record levels.  The banks are on deck first: BlackRock, Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo will report on Friday, followed by Goldman Sachs on Monday and Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Tuesday.


Nigel Green concludes: "It's our base case that even though the US presidential election brings a layer of uncertainty – which markets hate – the current market conditions present a strong case for a bullish outlook. 


"The Fed's readiness to cut rates in response to a slowdown provides a significant layer of confidence for investors. 


"The combination of proactive monetary measures, ample liquidity, robust corporate fundamentals, and ongoing interest and investment in AI creates a favorable environment for equities." 

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